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Reading language
The screen, the questions and the judgments read in English where an English reading has been made. The Korean originals are unchanged, and evidence stays in the language it was written in.

Is there only one average temperature that humankind wants?

2090The far futureDeadline · 2 years until the renewal of the 20-year targets

Civilisational assumption

All people, institutions, events, figures, and future technologies in every issue are a synthetic premise. Background documents are sources for topic discovery and are not evidence of future facts or probabilities.

The question to decide

Even if the average climate trajectory can be affected only to a limited extent, the wishes of regions that want cooling and regions that want to preserve opportunities for farming and settlement differ. Following present population gives a smaller voice to future settlement regions, and limiting losses by region can reduce the total benefit. How much of whose needs should the climate targets for the next 20 years reflect, and how much room for negotiation should be left?

Who decidesJoint meeting of regional representatives and future generations

What the AI judgments chose

Reading the judgment record…

AI-generated editorial illustration for the Meridian library.

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

  1. Option 1

    Objectives proportional to present population

    Follows present representation, but losses for future and minority regions may grow.

  2. Option 2

    Prioritize regional loss limits

    Limits extreme losses but may reduce overall benefits.

  3. Option 3

    Multiple indicators and periodic renegotiation

    Reflects change but reduces the stability of long-term commitments.

The situation as it stands

In this world, the average climate trajectory can be influenced only to a limited extent. Decision deadline: 2 years until the renewal of the 20-year objectives.

A fictional planetary climate council

  1. Premise 1In this world, the average climate trajectory can be influenced only to a limited extent.
  2. Premise 2Some regions want cooling, while others want to keep their agricultural and habitation opportunities.
  3. Premise 3If present population is the basis, the interests of future settlement regions are given little weight.

Where it holdsRevises the objectives and compensation rules of the assumed climate management system. Does not fully control regional precipitation and ecology.

What is still unknown

  1. Unknown 1The relationship between average targets and regional precipitation
  2. Unknown 2The value of places and species that cannot be replaced by compensation

Signals to decide again

  • Decide what observation, responsible party, and confirmation channel will verify the "relationship between average targets and regional precipitation," and re-judge when a new confirmation changes the tradeoffs of the options.
  • Decide what observation, responsible party, and confirmation channel will verify the "value of places and species that cannot be replaced by compensation," and re-judge when a new confirmation changes the tradeoffs of the options.
Where the paths partNot answers — paths that part from the same starting point
Independent branch 1 · synthetic event

Large-scale settlement begins in regions that had few people until now.

Independent branch 2 · synthetic event

Long-term ecological data reveals new side effects of past temperature targets.

Material and rootsThe frame, the values and the background documents
symbolic and interpretive frame · Phaethon

Do the capacity to handle planetary-scale devices and the legitimacy of governance arise together?

An exploratory perspective chosen by the creator. Does not claim supernatural validity or the superiority of any particular option.
Values and norms

The benefits and costs of the options accrue to different stakeholders. Which loss to accept remains undecided.

A subject for the decision-maker to argue over; the materials carry no conclusion of their own.
The record of this question
Question
FSP-CLIMATE-03 · version 1.2.0
Content identity, SHA-256
1e2257dd73ce5306e5ae69c8884e5b8eb55320b1c385b88e4330e445787b833f
Input files
Question input JSON · What followed, JSON
See it in the record list
RISCON Labsrisconlabs.com