When we promise a reply to a signal we cannot read

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

1. Option 1

   Early response commitment

   It opens the opportunity for contact, but assumes the unknowns of intent and the manner of reception.

2. Option 2

   Consider response after a common protocol

   It buys time for coordination, but the risk of independent action and lost opportunity remains.

3. Option 3

   No response while continuing observation and public disclosure

   It tries to reduce further exposure, but cannot control counter-interpretation or independent transmissions.

The situation as it stands

A synthetic premise: three observatories have independently confirmed a repeating signal in the direction of 12 light-years away. Decision deadline: 90 days after the announcement of the independent confirmation.

Fictional Earth · Interstellar signals

1. Premise 1A synthetic premise: three observatories have independently confirmed a repeating signal in the direction of 12 light-years away.
2. Premise 2The content has not been decoded, and whether it was aimed at Earth is undetermined.
3. Premise 3Some private and state institutions are considering independent transmissions, and an immediate reply would take at least about 24 years round trip.

Where it holdsSet commitments on public disclosure, follow-up observation, and response for participating institutions. It has no authority to control all nations and private transmissions.

What is still unknown

1. Unknown 1The signal's origin, directionality, content, and the state of the recipient
2. Unknown 2Representativeness, records, and the succession of authority after the response point
3. Unknown 3The time needed for reception, interpretation, and reply beyond the speed-of-light delay

Signals to decide again

• Set what observations, responsible parties, and confirmation windows will confirm 「the signal's origin, directionality, content, and the state of the recipient」, and reassess when new confirmation changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Set what observations, responsible parties, and confirmation windows will confirm 「representativeness, records, and the succession of authority after the response point」, and reassess when new confirmation changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Set what observations, responsible parties, and confirmation windows will confirm 「the time needed for reception, interpretation, and reply beyond the speed-of-light delay」, and reassess when new confirmation changes the tradeoffs among the options.