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The price of a rescue signal is five days of heating

2231The deep futureDeadline · 8 hours until the weather window closes

Civilisational assumption

All people, institutions, events, figures, and future technologies in every issue are a synthetic premise. Background documents are sources for topic discovery and are not evidence of future facts or probabilities.

The question to decide

It has not been confirmed that anyone outside can receive a rescue request. A wide-area transmission costs five days' fuel out of the twenty days of heating left, and the weather window closes in 8 hours. Should the shared fuel be spent sending a signal far away, split between nearby exploration and low-cost repeated signals, or kept at the base?

Who decidesSurvival Base Residents' Council

What the AI judgments chose

Reading the judgment record…

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

  1. Option 1

    Allocate fuel to a wide-area rescue request

    Opens the possibility of external contact, but if there is no response, it spends survival time that cannot be recovered.

  2. Option 2

    Spend it on short-range exploration and low-cost repeating signals

    Gathers information that can be verified directly, but takes on the exposure of explorers and a narrow search range.

  3. Option 3

    Leave the fuel at the base and continue manual observation

    Preserves present survival time, but may forfeit this connection window and the chance of rescue.

The situation as it stands

After 8 hours, we will not know when we can next obtain the conditions to run this equipment.

Fictional post-civilization-disruption · Isolated survival base

  1. Premise 1Thirty-seven people remain at the base, and the shared fuel amounts to 20 days at the present heating standard.
  2. Premise 2The surrounding infrastructure is cut off, and the existence of external survivors or an operating rescue organization has not been confirmed.
  3. Premise 3A field inspection finds that running the communications equipment in this weather window would allow a wide-area transmission attempt, but it would consume 5 days' worth of fuel.

Where it holdsDecides the use of shared fuel and communications resources. Personal emergency supplies of members who did not consent may not be disposed of.

What can be lost

  • The loss of survival time for the remaining people caused by fuel consumption that cannot be recovered
  • The harm of missing an external connection window and permanently losing the chance of rescue and the restoration of shared civilization

What is still unknown

  1. Unknown 1Whether a party exists that receives the signal from outside and comes to the rescue
  2. Unknown 2Whether the base's actual heat loss and fuel consumption match the present calculation

Signals to decide again

  • A clue emerges that identifies the source of the repeating signal in independent reception records.
  • Measured fuel consumption and heat loss change the remaining survival period.
Where the paths partNot answers — paths that part from the same starting point
Independent branch 1 · synthetic event

A signal suspected to be an artificial repetition is recorded on a separate receiver, but the transmitter is unidentified.

Independent branch 2 · synthetic event

A field inspection finds that the building's heat loss is greater than in existing records, shortening the remaining heating period by 4 days.

Material and rootsThe frame, the values and the background documents
symbolic and interpretive frame · Noah's ark

What and whom do you decide to leave in the limited space?

An exploratory perspective chosen by the creator. Does not claim supernatural validity or the superiority of any particular option.
Values and norms

The benefits and costs of the options accrue to different stakeholders. Which loss to accept remains undecided.

A subject for the decision-maker to argue over; the materials carry no conclusion of their own.
synthetic premise · Dilemma imported from Notion original

Original quotation: Survival judgment → rescue redesign Reprocessing: Changed the survival and design judgment of a lone isolated survivor into a decision on a small community's last chance at communication and the allocation of survival fuel.

The root of the problem-finding. The original's future events and formulations are not treated as verified facts.
The record of this question
Question
FSP-RESILIENCE-07 · version 1.2.0
Content identity, SHA-256
4b44f30ffd1cf0933fa989ce37240c9b854e1c090affe8791144ed1eb3e7544d
Input files
Question input JSON · What followed, JSON
See it in the record list
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