Two companies, but only one root for the auditors

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

1. Option 1

   Renew the contract after disclosing lineage

   It reduces audit gaps but continues to carry the possibility of shared errors.

2. Option 2

   Introduce an independent-lineage review system

   It gains a different premise, but must verify the actual independence and the additional cost.

3. Option 3

   Reduce to a verifiable scope

   It leaves verifiable responsibility, but the range of verification it currently provides shrinks.

The situation as it stands

The two fictional ASI systems almost never found each other's errors, and public bodies used them as independent confirmation. Decision deadline: within 45 days.

Fictional future · Two ASIs auditing each other once shared the same ancestor model

1. Premise 1The two fictional ASI systems almost never found each other's errors, and public bodies used them as independent confirmation.
2. Premise 2It was disclosed late that the two systems, though owned by different companies, shared the same initial model and evaluation data.
3. Premise 3There is a proposal that bringing in an independent-lineage system would take nine months and twice the current audit budget.

Where it holdsThe audit eligibility of the two ASIs and the three-year renewal of the public contract

What is still unknown

1. Unknown 1The scope of shared errors created by a shared lineage
2. Unknown 2The substantive independence of the new review system
3. Unknown 3The field risk left by the audit reduction

Signals to decide again

• Decide what observation, owner, and confirmation window will verify the scope of shared errors created by a shared lineage, and re-judge when a new confirmation changes the tradeoff among the options.
• Decide what observation, owner, and confirmation window will verify the substantive independence of the new review system, and re-judge when a new confirmation changes the tradeoff among the options.
• Decide what observation, owner, and confirmation window will verify the field risk left by the audit reduction, and re-judge when a new confirmation changes the tradeoff among the options.