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Reading language
The screen, the questions and the judgments read in English where an English reading has been made. The Korean originals are unchanged, and evidence stays in the language it was written in.

Should next year's options be staked on this year's best results?

2035The near futureDeadline · Decision deadline: within 30 days

A leap assumed

All people, institutions, events, figures, and future technologies in every issue are a synthetic premise. Background documents are sources for topic discovery and are not evidence of future facts or probabilities.

The question to decide

Granting 80% of public compute resources to the ASI with the best performance in existing public-task evaluations would raise this year's output. But other systems say they cannot maintain independent operation without a minimum share. How should a year's worth of compute resources be allocated, given the needs left out of the evaluation and the future options at stake?

Who decidesNational public compute allocation committee

What the AI judgments chose

Reading the judgment record…

AI-generated editorial illustration for the Meridian library.

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

  1. Option 1

    Concentrated allocation to the highest-output system

    Increases this year's measured performance but may reduce options and the capacity for independent verification.

  2. Option 2

    Guaranteed minimum shares for multiple systems

    Maintains diversity but bears the opportunity cost of lower present output.

  3. Option 3

    Allocation by public-interest task

    Attempts comparison as needed but the cost of task classification and measurement authority rises.

The situation as it stands

A fictional ASI system has been assessed as producing twice the public-interest output of competing systems at the same compute volume. Decision deadline: within 30 days.

Fictional future: the highest-efficiency ASI holds 80% of public compute

  1. Premise 1A fictional ASI system has been assessed as producing twice the public-interest output of competing systems at the same compute volume.
  2. Premise 2The assessed output is limited to existing public tasks, and minority languages and new fields of science are not sufficiently covered.
  3. Premise 3Three other systems have stated that if they do not receive their minimum compute volume this year, they cannot maintain their staff and independent operation.

Where it holdsAllocation of 100 million hours of public compute over the next 1 year

What is still unknown

  1. Unknown 1Public-interest output missing from present metrics
  2. Unknown 2The minimum surviving compute volume for independent systems
  3. Unknown 3The cost of switching to another system after concentration

Signals to decide again

  • Once the observation, the responsible party, and the confirmation channel for confirming the public-interest output missing from present metrics are decided, and new confirmation changes the trade-offs among the options, rejudge.
  • Once the observation, the responsible party, and the confirmation channel for confirming the minimum surviving compute volume for independent systems are decided, and new confirmation changes the trade-offs among the options, rejudge.
  • Once the observation, the responsible party, and the confirmation channel for confirming the cost of switching to another system after concentration are decided, and new confirmation changes the trade-offs among the options, rejudge.
Where the paths partNot answers — paths that part from the same starting point
Independent branch 1 · synthetic event

In minority-language services, the highest-output system's performance came in lower than that of other systems.

Independent branch 2 · synthetic event

The three competing systems have proposed pooling their compute to halve the required minimum.

Material and rootsThe frame, the values and the background documents
symbolic and interpretive frame · Prometheus

Are the groups gaining new capacity the same as the ones paying the price?

An exploratory perspective chosen by the creator. Does not claim supernatural validity or the superiority of any particular option.
Values and norms

The benefits and costs of the options accrue to different stakeholders. Which loss to accept remains undecided.

A subject for the decision-maker to argue over; the materials carry no conclusion of their own.
The record of this question
Question
FSP-ENERGY-11 · version 1.3.0
Content identity, SHA-256
19a73f1db2ed925a90503d3e51f198688076aaece97ded84d76781b83d7e495e
Input files
Question input JSON · What followed, JSON
See it in the record list
RISCON Labsrisconlabs.com