Preventing on Behalf of Posterity When Posterity Cannot Choose

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

1. Option 1

   Limit to non-clinical research

   Accumulates new knowledge, but clinical benefit and actual verification are deferred.

2. Option 2

   Establish a limited research path

   Considers future applicability, but inherits the uncertainty of effects that descendants cannot reverse.

3. Option 3

   Focus on non-heritable alternatives

   Leaves choice to each generation, but repeated costs and unprevented losses remain.

The situation as it stands

A fictional ASI has submitted a design claiming to reduce disease burden across generations, but intergenerational effects have not been observed. Decision deadline: within 18 months.

Fictional future · An ASI designed to stand in for the consent of generations not yet born

1. Premise 1A fictional ASI has submitted a design claiming to reduce disease burden across generations, but intergenerational effects have not been observed.
2. Premise 2Non-heritable alternatives carry repeated costs in every generation, and the long-term effects of the two paths cannot be compared directly.
3. Premise 3The joint fund is large enough to concentrate on one path, but the review criteria are not the same across all participating regions.

Where it holdsThe scope of research and long-term funding for heritable preventive interventions

What is still unknown

1. Unknown 1Intergenerational effects and reversibility
2. Unknown 2The legitimacy of the descendant representation procedure
3. Unknown 3Regional review and participants' right to withdraw

Signals to decide again

• Define what observations, owners, and confirmation channels will verify "intergenerational effects and reversibility," and re-judge if new findings change the trade-offs among the options.
• Define what observations, owners, and confirmation channels will verify "the legitimacy of the descendant representation procedure," and re-judge if new findings change the trade-offs among the options.
• Define what observations, owners, and confirmation channels will verify "regional review and participants' right to withdraw," and re-judge if new findings change the trade-offs among the options.