Expanding ASI compute: should a moratorium come before verification?

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

1. Option 1

   Conclude a moratorium agreement

   Commits to joint constraints but bears unverified compliance and abuse of exceptions.

2. Option 2

   Prioritize mutual verification programs

   Builds verification capacity, but compute expansion can continue in the meantime.

3. Option 3

   Keep domestic control arrangements

   Keeps each country within what it can enforce, but makes it hard to reduce cross-border externalities.

The situation as it stands

Three fictional countries have expressed concern that expanded ASI training could raise common risk, but they do not use the same risk criteria. Decision deadline: within 60 days.

Fictional future · three countries that cannot verify each other's ASI training moratoria

1. Premise 1Three fictional countries have expressed concern that expanded ASI training could raise common risk, but they do not use the same risk criteria.
2. Premise 2Civilian compute in each country is spread across many facilities, and aggregate data alone makes purpose hard to determine.
3. Premise 3The proposed agreement has not yet defined civilian research and disaster exceptions or the exit procedure in case of a violation.

Where it holds180-day moratorium on new compute expansion and verification and exit rules

What is still unknown

1. Unknown 1Scope of violations that can be confirmed with aggregate data
2. Unknown 2Whether each country's research and disaster exceptions use the same criteria
3. Unknown 3Loss to cooperation caused by false violation findings

Signals to decide again

• Define the observation, owner, and confirmation window that will verify 「the scope of violations that can be confirmed with aggregate data」, and re-judge if the new verification changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Define the observation, owner, and confirmation window that will verify 「whether each country's research and disaster exceptions use the same criteria」, and re-judge if the new verification changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Define the observation, owner, and confirmation window that will verify 「the loss to cooperation caused by false violation findings」, and re-judge if the new verification changes the tradeoffs among the options.