Security and international order
Trojan horse From which observations do the readings of gift, help, and threat diverge?
What this series asks
- How do different time pressures create misjudgment?
- What distinguishes a counterpart's actions from its intentions?
- Is there still an actor able to keep cooperation promises?
The questions
1 · 2030 · 2 hours until automatic travel restrictions applyBefore automated alerts close the borderAll 13 judgments agree
2 · 2049 · 7 months until the next rainy seasonBetween the right to settle and the freedom to returnAll 13 judgments agree
3 · 2082 · 30 days until the certification accord expiresThe body stays; only the digital border closes11 perspectives agree
4 · 2034 · 20 days to apply for family reunification permissionOne person's migration puts the whole family's records at stakeAll 13 judgments agree
5 · 2062 · 120 days to renew verification equipmentThe treaty verifies compliance, but the basis for findings stays secretAll 13 judgments agree
6 · 2140 · 1 year until the records disclosure commitment expiresThe records that will establish accountability also hold dangerous technologyAll 13 judgments agree
7 · 2037 · 12 hours until the joint relief request of the field hospital closesCan 72 hours of protection become a basis for governance?All 13 judgments agree
8 · 2044 · 21 days until the winter joint support budget execution closesWhose authority will the winter support funds strengthen?Split 9:2
9 · 2050 · 48 hours until the joint emergency registration center opens180,000 risk ratings, screening capacity for 120,000All 13 judgments agree
10 · 2049 · 7 days until the foreign operator's contract is suspendedThe identity network stops in 7 days; the domestic records are 90 days oldSplit 9:2
11 · 2066 · 8 hours until the joint logistics cutoff executes automaticallyFollowing the alarm also stops essential goodsAll 13 judgments agree
12 · 2046 · Decision deadline: within 72 hoursSeven ASIs accepted a convention; one ASI refuses itSplit 9:2
13 · 2039 · Decision deadline: within 60 daysExpanding ASI compute: should a moratorium come before verification?All 13 judgments agree
14 · 2031 · 48 hours until additional authority for partner institutions opensHow far to disclose signs of new dangerous capabilitiesAll 13 judgments agree