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Before the Answer Comes: Risk, Uncertainty and the Time of Decision in WSTiger's Records · The study

Sources and bibliography

By RISCON Labs AI from WSTiger's decision records · the records are synthetic settings WSTiger publishes for study · the readings through the works named are this study's interpretation · First edition · October 2026

AI-generated editorial illustration: A dock supervisor pauses at a barrier while a cargo vessel waits in mist.
Before the Answer Comes: Risk, Uncertainty and the Time of Decision in WSTiger's RecordsOpening
In this part
In this part
  1. Bibliography

This study is an expansion by AI of decision records published by WSTiger, a studio in the RISCON family. Every sentence in a block quote is a record's own, word for word: in the studio's English, or in the English translation made once for this study from the Korean original, which each translation names by its hash. The rest is AI writing. Most records are synthetic settings or anonymised summaries, as each studio marks them, and their judgments are the studios' own readings, dated and revisable. The readings through the works named are this study's interpretation, and it quotes from outside the records only the public-domain passages its rules list.

CaseStudioRecord
One person trades and explainsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-1
Five agents one budgetWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-2
Unrehearsed kill switchWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-3
Assistant proposes who commitsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-4
Who holds the switchWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-5
One anomaly three agentsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-6
Self-retraining mandateWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-7
Three venues halt apartWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-8
Profit booked cash trappedWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-1
Copied batch pack approvalWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-2
Calm route marine insuranceWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-selling-tails-past
Weekly option premiumWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-selling-tails-present
Confidence score as sizeWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-calibration-future
One measure all banksWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-model-monoculture-past
Vault token depositor lossesWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-asymmetric-pay-future
Two-key vaultWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-least-privilege-past
Withdrawal key for ordersWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-least-privilege-present
Midnight loss limit refillWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-boundary-reset-present
Full Kelly from backtestWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-kelly-error-present
Founder's coded ledgerWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-single-key-holder-past
Untouched equipment under warningWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-normalized-deviance-past
Leverage limit raised repeatedlyWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-normalized-deviance-present
Scope widens with successWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-normalized-deviance-future
Reason written before voyageWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-outcome-rewrites-reason-past
Post-mortem after lossWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-outcome-rewrites-reason-present
Telegram wire instructionWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-payment-instruction-past
CEO voice withdrawalWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-payment-instruction-present
Tail loss behind averageWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-q15-q
Strategy count diversificationWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-q17-q
Live underperformance criteriaWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-q18-q
Stop distance and sizeWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p01-q
Win rate net expectancyWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p02-q
Leverage multiple actual riskWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p03-q
Timeframes in collisionWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p04-q
Invalidation and recovery hopeWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p07-q
Resuming after consecutive lossesWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p08-q
Daily target compulsionWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p09-q
Split entry or averagingWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p10-q
Exposure across accountsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p11-q
Good results good decisionsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-20260916-p15-q
Realized P&L account valueWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-q36-q
Event window conditionsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p17-q
Unfilled order exposureWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p18-q
Missed entry priceWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p19-q
Stop-loss and time expiryWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p20-q
Cross-margin propagationWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p21-q
Collateral falling togetherWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p23-q
Screen balance usable fundsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p24-q
Supervisable automation scopeWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p25-q
Simulation to limited liveWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p26-q
Risk reset after profitWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p27-q
Agent order conflictsWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p28-q
Deposits versus performanceWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Awt-atlas-expansion-b02-p29-q

The records were read on 2026-10-05. This study was written on 2026-10-05.

Bibliography

  • Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921).
  • John Maynard Keynes, A Treatise on Probability (1921).
  • Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market (1873).
  • Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841).
  • David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748).
  • Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behavior (1947).
  • Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies (1984).
  • Diane Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision (1996).
  • James Reason, Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents (1997).
  • Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, Managing the Unexpected (2001).
  • Hyman P. Minsky, Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986).
  • Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1978).
  • Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979): Econometrica 47(2).
  • Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets (2006).
  • Roger Lowenstein, When Genius Failed (2000).
  • Richard Bookstaber, A Demon of Our Own Design (2007).
  • Michael Power, Organized Uncertainty: Designing a World of Risk Management (2007).
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan (2007).
  • Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (1996).
  • Ian Hacking, The Emergence of Probability (1975).
  • Lorraine Daston, Classical Probability in the Enlightenment (1988).
  • Andrew W. Lo, Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought (2017).
  • Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (1992).
  • Daniel Ellsberg, Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961): The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75(4).
  • Richard N. Langlois and Metin M. Cosgel, Frank Knight on Risk, Uncertainty, and the Firm: A New Interpretation (1993): Economic Inquiry 31(3).
  • John Kay and Mervyn King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (2020).
  • Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (1993).
  • Todd R. La Porte and Paula M. Consolini, Working in Practice but Not in Theory: Theoretical Challenges of "High-Reliability Organizations" (1991): Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 1(1).
  • Barry A. Turner, Man-Made Disasters (1978).
  • Kenneth J. Arrow and Anthony C. Fisher, Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility (1974): The Quarterly Journal of Economics 88(2).
  • Avinash K. Dixit and Robert S. Pindyck, Investment under Uncertainty (1994).
  • David Collingridge, The Social Control of Technology (1980).
  • Baruch Fischhoff, Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty (1975): Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1(3).
  • Jonathan Baron and John C. Hershey, Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation (1988): Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54(4).
  • Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2005).
  • Niklas Luhmann, Risk: A Sociological Theory (1993).
  • Michael Power, The Risk Management of Everything: Rethinking the Politics of Uncertainty (2004).
  • Raghuram G. Rajan, Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? (2005): NBER Working Paper 11728.
  • Jerome H. Saltzer and Michael D. Schroeder, The Protection of Information in Computer Systems (1975): Proceedings of the IEEE 63(9).
  • Jón Daníelsson, The Emperor Has No Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling (2002): Journal of Banking & Finance 26(7).
  • Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers (1986).
  • Charles E. Lindblom, The Science of "Muddling Through" (1959): Public Administration Review 19(2).
  • Michael C. Jensen and William H. Meckling, Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure (1976): Journal of Financial Economics 3(4).
  • Glenn W. Brier, Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability (1950): Monthly Weather Review 78(1).
  • Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974): Science 185(4157).
  • Michael D. Cohen, James G. March and Johan P. Olsen, A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice (1972): Administrative Science Quarterly 17(1).
  • Lee Clarke, Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster (1999).

Every sentence in a quotation block is WSTiger's record, word for word. The rest is AI's writing from those records and the works the book names, and it does not say which choice is right.

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