Intuition facing the only development budget

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

1. Option 1

   Develop the intuition's product in full

   Addresses a missed need quickly but spends resources without adequately verifying how far the personal experience transfers.

2. Option 2

   Small-scale exploration with users

   Turns the discovery into verifiable questions but uses some of the development speed and budget.

3. Option 3

   Keep the product from the existing research

   Follows current data and plans but may miss an important need outside the research.

The situation as it stands

The synthetic intuition arose from personal family caregiving experience, but existing surveys rarely reported the same need. Decision deadline: 10 days until the prototype budget is allocated.

2026 fictional case · A strong intuition points to a customer need that is absent from the data. The people, organizations, figures, and events are a synthetic premise composed for comparison.

1. Premise 1The synthetic intuition arose from personal family caregiving experience, but existing surveys rarely reported the same need.
2. Premise 2The survey centered on users who could respond in writing, so there is a possibility that some experiences were missed.
3. Premise 3The team budget allows only one full-scale development, and small-scale exploration would delay part of the schedule.

Where it holdsThe team's own discovery budget, user engagement, and product priorities

What is still unknown

1. Unknown 1The actual experience of people who found it hard to take part in the survey
2. Unknown 2How far the personal experience carries into other living conditions
3. Unknown 3Specific signals by which the discovery results would change development priorities

Signals to decide again

• Define what observation, who is in charge, and what confirmation window will verify the "actual experience of people who found it hard to take part in the survey," and reconsider the judgment if new verification changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Define what observation, who is in charge, and what confirmation window will verify "how far the personal experience carries into other living conditions," and reconsider the judgment if new verification changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Define what observation, who is in charge, and what confirmation window will verify the "specific signals by which the discovery results would change development priorities," and reconsider the judgment if new verification changes the tradeoffs among the options.