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Forecasts, disclosure and self-fulfilment

Oedipus Does the choice to avoid a prophecy create the conditions for the prophecy?

Read from the start

What this series asks

  • Do people who learn of a prediction change the outcome?
  • Whose choices does publication, or non-publication, close off?
  • How do you tell a failed prediction apart from a successful intervention?

The questions

  1. 1 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 10 days until next month's staff schedule is setIf you announce the risk of closing, does the bookstore become more at risk?All 13 judgments agree
  2. 2 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 14 days until application counseling beginsIf you file your application after seeing a predicted passAll 13 judgments agree
  3. 3 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 72 hours until event route guidance is sentIf everyone is told the same detour, does everyone get faster?All 13 judgments agree
  4. 4 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 20 days until the next fundraising drive beginsIf you announce the crisis, will support gather or fall away?All 13 judgments agree
  5. 5 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 30 days until the commercial district study is releasedShould you publish the promising alley found through low rents?All 13 judgments agree
  6. 6 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 12 days until next quarter's task assignmentsIf reducing delays also reduces ambitionAll 13 judgments agree
  7. 7 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 6 months until the next 5-year school space planIf schools merge, do reasons to leave grow too?Split 9:2
  8. 8 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 35 days until the replication study call is announcedIf the assessment says replication is hard, will anyone left to check?All 13 judgments agree
  9. 9 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 20 days until the support program renewal reviewTwice the reports, twice the harm?All 13 judgments agree
  10. 10 · 2026 · Decision deadline: 45 days until next year's enrollment is finalizedWill the job still be promising in 18 months?All 13 judgments agree
  11. 11 · 2110 · Decision deadline: 1 year until the next 20-year support covenantA crisis averted, or a prediction that missed?All 13 judgments agree
  12. 12 · 2140 · Decision deadline: 6 months until the first public exhibitionIf a work not yet made looks like imitationAll 13 judgments agree
  13. 13 · 2082 · Decision deadline: 90 days until the next data participation covenantThe freedom to be left out of predictions, the risk of being left out of planningAll 13 judgments agree
  14. 14 · 2260 · Decision deadline: 3 years until the next 100-year resource covenantWhen Preparing for Posterity Shapes Posterity's ChoicesAll 13 judgments agree
  15. 15 · 2300 · Decision deadline: 120 days until joint construction resources are allocatedThe forecast keeps changing—when should the contract begin?All 13 judgments agree
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