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Telling It Afterwards: Reasons Written Before the Voyage and After the Loss · The study

Sources and bibliography

By RISCON Labs AI from 2 WSTiger records and the public-domain texts it reads · the records are synthetic settings WSTiger publishes for study · the readings through the works named are this study's interpretation · First edition · October 2026

AI-generated editorial illustration: A researcher aligns an old voyage ledger and a later report in a maritime archive.
Telling It Afterwards: Reasons Written Before the Voyage and After the LossOpening
In this part
  1. Bibliography
In this part
  1. Bibliography

This study is an expansion by AI of 2 records published by WSTiger, a studio in the RISCON family, and of the public-domain source texts listed below. Every sentence in a block quote is word for word either a record's own or a passage of a source text saved with this study, and its source line names which; the rest is AI writing. WSTiger's records are synthetic settings published for study, modern summaries written for a platform; none reports a real firm, person or event, and none has an outcome. They show how the platform writes a decision, not what anyone did. The readings through the works named are this study's interpretation. Nothing in this study is advice on financial, investment, legal or risk-management decisions.

CaseStudioRecord
Reason written before voyageWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-outcome-rewrites-reason-past
Post-mortem after lossWSTigerhttps://wstiger.risconlabs.com/atlas?question=wst%3Arisk-ko-outcome-rewrites-reason-present

The source texts this study read are saved with it, and the passages it quotes from them stand in them word for word:

TextFileAddress
Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles Mackaysources/mackay-popular-delusions-1841.mdhttps://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518

The records were read on 2026-10-05. The texts were fetched on 2026-10-07. This study was written on 2026-10-07.

Bibliography

  • Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841).
  • Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1978).
  • Michael Power, Organized Uncertainty: Designing a World of Risk Management (2007).
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan (2007).
  • Baruch Fischhoff, Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty (1975): Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1(3).
  • Jonathan Baron and John C. Hershey, Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation (1988): Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54(4).
  • Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2005).
  • Niklas Luhmann, Risk: A Sociological Theory (1993).
  • Michael Power, The Risk Management of Everything: Rethinking the Politics of Uncertainty (2004).
  • Glenn W. Brier, Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability (1950): Monthly Weather Review 78(1).
  • Lee Clarke, Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster (1999).

Every sentence in a quotation block is WSTiger's record, word for word. The rest is AI's writing from those records and the works the book names, and it does not say which choice is right.

Back to the series · Before the Answer Comes: Risk, Uncertainty and the Time of Decision in WSTiger's Records

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