Science and what is not yet known
Icarus Does the expectation of achievement change how limits are observed?
What this series asks
- Where do observation and interpretation part ways?
- What are the criteria for allocating resources over a period that cannot be verified?
- What do research practices make invisible?
The questions
1 · 2032 · 10 days until the regular results announcementReproduction has not happened, but investment has already startedAll 13 judgments agree
2 · 2052 · 6 months until the facility site contractNew physics that can only be confirmed a generation laterSplit 10:1
3 · 2120 · 2 years until the probe launch windowOne observation, divergent futures of the universeAll 13 judgments agree
4 · 2031 · 30 days until the research funding re-reviewSharing failure records also costs research fundingAll 13 judgments agree
5 · 2047 · 45 days until the public experiment demonstrationA measurement method widely used, a consortium that must repay its debtSplit 10:1
6 · 2300 · 5 years until the only observation windowOne experiment before three theoriesSplit 7:3:1
7 · 2067 · 45 days until the city infrastructure demolition contract takes effectAn experiment to reshape a city begins by demolishing its water and sewage systemsSplit 6:5
8 · 2093 · 21 days until the isolation equipment's cooling contract expiresMeasurements diverge, and isolation delays observationAll 13 judgments agree
9 · 2078 · 72 hours until the annual maximum-output experiment beginsShould a warning dated in the future stop today's experiment?All 13 judgments agree
10 · 2056 · 6 days until the current model reaches its computation limitIf the ASI's structure changes, does the safety proof still hold?All 13 judgments agree
11 · 2184 · 180 days until production of independent measuring device components endsThe price of keeping the last independent measuring deviceAll 13 judgments agree
12 · 2038 · Decision deadline: within 90 daysShould we entrust a breakwater to proofs that humans cannot read?All 13 judgments agree
13 · 2045 · Decision deadline: within 60 daysThe theory changes before verification is finishedAll 13 judgments agree
14 · 2055 · Within 9 months until the equipment contractIf we change measuring devices, can we still compare a hundred years?All 13 judgments agree
15 · 2080 · Within 2 years until the demonstration project approvalA thousand years of simulation, one month of observationAll 13 judgments agree
16 · 2135 · Within 1 year until the first analysis is assignedGetting today's answer shrinks tomorrow's samplesAll 13 judgments agree
17 · 2072 · Within 45 days until the next results collection is publishedResearch already in use, the scope of an error still unknownAll 13 judgments agree
18 · 2240 · Within 10 years until the standards updateA measurement standard under doubt, and the records built on itAll 13 judgments agree
19 · 2100 · Within 1 year until the next 10-year funding roundNot enough money to save both the big experiment and the alternative theoryAll 13 judgments agree
20 · 2165 · Within 18 months until the next observation cycleWhen the research subject asks to change the purposeAll 13 judgments agree
21 · 2039 · Within 60 days until formal registrationIs the name of a discovery a credit or a mark of ownership?All 13 judgments agree
22 · 2190 · Within 90 days until the first results are announcedWhat if disclosure changes the next observation?All 13 judgments agree
23 · 2275 · Within 4 years until the observation window closesAn Opportunity You Can Lose Even by Watching and WaitingSplit 9:2
24 · 2002 · Within 60 days until next semester's budgetA first budget for open scholarship, a responsibility that lastsAll 13 judgments agree
25 · 2002 · Within 45 days until the next volume's publication contractRemove the barrier to reading, and does the barrier to writing rise?All 13 judgments agree
26 · 2002 · Within 20 days until the conference submissionWhen an interpretation released first is read as settledSplit 10:1
27 · 2002 · Within 90 days until the joint search serviceShould we record in the same words in order to find things together?All 13 judgments agree
28 · 2002 · Within 30 days until the first open volume is publishedPapers opened for free, but should commercial use be open too?All 13 judgments agree
29 · 1869 · Within 6 months until the new measurement method is adoptedA measurement method learned abroad does not match the village's recordsAll 13 judgments agree
30 · 1869 · Within 90 days until the new principle's wordingRules of life that part ways from the same account of natureAll 13 judgments agree
31 · 2026 · 10 days until the 2026 joint equipment reservation is confirmedThe next observation for optical patterns outside the validated questionsAll 13 judgments agree
32 · 2035 · 30 days until the 2035 next experiment cycle settings are frozenObservation candidates that the automated apparatus does not produceAll 13 judgments agree
33 · 2180 · 6 months until the 2180 assignment of the next joint research vessel is confirmedChanging the unit of the next study in the face of the same predictionSplit 10:1
34 · 2026 · 7 days until the scheduled paper release dateHow much to release when public-interest research results can also be harmfully reproducedSplit 8:3
35 · 2030 · 7 days until the next external distribution of derived dataAGI-derived data is still used across experiments after a participant withdraws from the researchAll 13 judgments agree