The promises remain after the expedition departs

The options

The order shown is not a ranking of preference.

1. Option 1

   Begin long-term field exploration

   Opens up living discoveries and new lives, but assumes the uncertainty of return and the burden of supporting those left behind.

2. Option 2

   Focus on remote observation

   Reduces direct exposure and the burden of care, but gives up field experience and the chance of some discoveries.

3. Option 3

   Defer even the means of return

   Waits for a return option, but may lose the current generation's chance to explore and the drive to prepare.

The situation as it stands

In this world, adults may depart voluntarily, but a means of return has not yet been designed. Decision deadline: 3 years until the first departure is approved.

A fictional premise set in 2230 · A community begins an exploration from which there is no return, using its resources. The people, organizations, figures, and events are a synthetic premise constructed for comparison.

1. Premise 1In this world, adults may depart voluntarily, but a means of return has not yet been designed.
2. Premise 2Unmanned observation can record terrain, but cannot replace the experience of living on site.
3. Premise 3The families of participants and the support staff who remain must carry the burden of maintaining communications and records for decades.

Where it holdsEquipment, support, and pledges of remaining family resources for voluntary adult explorers

What is still unknown

1. Unknown 1The extent to which voluntary consent also holds for long-term supporters
2. Unknown 2The party that will carry on records and contact when the support consortium dissolves
3. Unknown 3The conditions under which one can still live locally even after abandoning the exploration

Signals to decide again

• Decide what observation, owner, and confirmation window will establish “the extent to which voluntary consent also holds for long-term supporters,” and re-judge when a new finding changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Decide what observation, owner, and confirmation window will establish “the party that will carry on records and contact when the support consortium dissolves,” and re-judge when a new finding changes the tradeoffs among the options.
• Decide what observation, owner, and confirmation window will establish “the conditions under which one can still live locally even after abandoning the exploration,” and re-judge when a new finding changes the tradeoffs among the options.