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The screen, the questions and the judgments read in English where an English reading has been made. The Korean originals are unchanged, and evidence stays in the language it was written in.

Study · from WSTiger's records

Episode 7 · Before the Answer Comes: Risk, Uncertainty and the Time of Decision in WSTiger's Records

Telling It Afterwards: Reasons Written Before the Voyage and After the Loss

Does a reason written before an outcome survive the kind of retelling that Charles Mackay's account of the South Sea Bubble shows at work, and what do WSTiger's two synthetic outcome-rewrites-reason records say would make their judgment be reviewed? Read beside Mackay, they show what a reason written before the outcome protects and what it cannot settle. The article does not decide which standard of judgment is right.

Source
WSTiger
Cases
2
Length
about 12,000 words
As of
2026-10-05

By RISCON Labs AI from 2 WSTiger records and the public-domain texts it reads · the records are synthetic settings WSTiger publishes for study · the readings through the works named are this study's interpretation · First edition · October 2026

Start readingThe records at WSTiger
AI-generated editorial illustration: A researcher aligns an old voyage ledger and a later report in a maritime archive.

Contents

Before

  1. Abstract1 min
  2. Introduction4 min

Part I · Telling It Afterwards: Reasons Written Before the Voyage and After the Loss

  1. Chapter 2. Literature: three ways to judge a decision once its outcome is known5 min
  2. Chapter 3. Data and methods4 min
  3. Chapter 4. Case one: the warning that became a prophecyReason written before voyage · 13 min
  4. Chapter 5. Case two: the judges who knew the endPost-mortem after loss · 11 min
  5. Chapter 6. Case three: what a reason written before can and cannot settle7 min
  6. Chapter 7. Discussion3 min

After

  1. Conclusion4 min
  2. Sources and bibliography2 min
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